June 2022 in numbers: Bitcoin below $ 20,000, discount on Steth and the collapse of famous crypto companies

Negative dynamics caused by Terra and UST collapse, the problems of large companies – Celsius, Blockfi and Three Arrows Capital (3ac). As the Bitcoin course fell, the mentioned players faced the liquidity crisis and were on the verge of bankruptcy. Referring to “extreme market conditions”, Celsius stopped the withdrawal of funds by users. The stumbling block has become large loans of structures in Defi tools and the inability to repay credit obligations.

• Among the assets with moderate capitalization, Terra Classic (LUNC) and TerraClassicusd (USTC), Stratis (Strat), Chia (XCH), Trust Wallet Token (TWT) and Unus Sed Leo (LEO) from Bitfinex from Bitfinex showed positive dynamics.
• The worst results were recorded by Voyager (VGX), which provided the 3ac $ 655 million fund in Bitcoin and USDC Steblcoin, and Harmony (One) and Convex Finance (CVX). The LIDO (LDO) protocol, the issuer of the synthetic asset, also showed negative dynamics.

Shares of companies associated with cryptocurrencies

Microstrategy (Mstr):
-37%

Coinbase (Coin):
-39%

Bakkt (bkkt):
-27%

Galaxy Digital (GLXY):
-42%

Voyager Digital (VYGVF):
-83.8%

Dynamics of securities of mining companies

Canaan (Can):
-fourteen%

Ebang International (EBON):
-fifty%

Riot Blockchain (Riot):
-42%

Hut 8 (HUT):
-48%

Marathon Digital (Mara):
-48%

JPMorgan believes that mining companies in need of liquidity in the third quarter are able to continue to exert a decreasing pressure on the Bitcoin course, if the profitability of production does not increase. Public miners today account for about 20% hashrate.

Bloomberg reported that some mining companies were faced with problems in servicing loans, which are provided by equipment for Bitcoin mining. The situation arose both due to the deterioration of the market conditions, and because of the negative revaluation of the ASIC devices. The default threats are threatened by miners for $ 4 billion.

Macroeconomic background

• According to the results of the meeting in June, the Fed raised the key rate by 75 b at once. P. -up to 1.5%-1.75%. The head of the Central Чи існує ціна, Bank Jerome Powell warned that in July a step could be 0.5%-0.75%. Futures estimate the probability in the first case at 16.8%, in the second – in 83.2%.
• Central Bank is ready to fight high inflation through sharp inhibition of the economy. Metrostatistics in June contained alarming signals, but did not unambiguously indicate the beginning of the recession. This “guarantees” the tightening of the Fed’s policy in July and leaves it possible to increase the rate by 50 b. P. September.
• The scenario of the transition to the negative dynamics of GDP is becoming more and more relevant. The FRB New York model began to evaluate the probability of a “hard landing” of 80%. In Europe, economists are waiting for a recession by the end of the year.

• Historically, bearish shares in the United States were observed during all periods of the decline in the economy. To the turn may push the crossing of the Fed to the cycle of the softening of the policy. However, futures allow such a scenario no earlier than July 2023.
• The positive correlation of bitcoin with NASDAQ-100 and the negative with the dollar moved away from extremes, but still indicate a close price relationship of assets. According to the results of the second quarter, the technological index lost more than 20%, which leaves the chances of a technical rebound. He may coincide with the beginning of the new season of quarterly reports.

Market moods, correlations and volatility

• Within a month, the “index of fear and greed” was at extremely low levels. On June 18, the indicator sank to 6 – for the first time since August 2019.
• Investors are still influenced by negative news and rumors about various participants in the cryptocurrency industry. Some experts, for example, Chanpen Zhao and Mike Novograts, noted that for the bankruptcy of weak players and the sale of collapsed assets will take time.

• In June, the correlation of Bitcoin with the American stock market was strengthened. A 90-day sliding average indicator was 0.6 for index S&P 500 and 0.54 for Dow Jones.
• The statistical relationship of the first cryptocurrency with gold changed the sign to the positive, but remained quite weak (0.06).
• At the end of the month, the correlation of the two largest digital assets has been significantly strengthened. This indicates the presence of a strong trend in the market.

• In June, the average value of the historical volatility of the price of bitcoin (a smoothed of a 30-day average) amounted to 3.46%. This approximately corresponds to the May indicator (3.58%).
• The coefficient of Sharpa averaged in 30 days (does not take into account the risk -free rate) Bitcoin indicates that Bitcoin was adjusted to the risk in June one of the worst assets.
• For all presented tools, the indicator took a negative value, which is evidence of a global recession.

Onchain-data

• Since the activation of the EIP-1559 in August 2021, the Ethereum network has withdrawn over 2.5 million ETH from circulation. Of these, more of 120,000 coins burned the protocol in June 2022.
• Throughout the month, there was an influx of coins on the wallets of centralized exchanges, due to the macroeconomic crisis and the loss of the steethyerase parity with the original cryptocurrency.
• The share of ETH decentralized applications blocked in smart contracts has slightly decreased. At the end of the month, the indicator dropped to 23%.

• According to the results of June, the amount of ETH at the Ethereum 2 deposit contract.0 exceeded 12.98 million coins. During the month, the indicator increased by 1.9%. For comparison – in May, growth amounted to 5.4%.
• The number of validators on the Beacon Chain network exceeded 405,000. During the month, the number of participants interacting with the second Ethereum iteration increased by 1.9%.
• The number of addresses with a balance of ≥ 32 ETH grew over a month. June 30, the indicator reached the mark 114 308.

Lightning Network

• In June, the capacity of the Lightning Network (LN) bitcoin network continued to grow – according to the results of the month, the value reached 4005 BTC (3916 BTC at the end of May).
• The number of NODs and channels of LN in June practically did not change: the first indicator grew by 0.4%, the second decreased by 0.6%.

Mining, hashrate, commissions

• According to the results of June, the hashReit practically did not change – the smoothed out seven -moving sliding medium (7 mA) indicator has grown by only 1%, to the mark of 214.65 eh/s. Such a sluggish dynamics is associated with a possible disconnection of part of low -performance miners against the background of a bear market.
• Heshprais decreased to $ 0.09, which corresponds to the indicators of October 2020. In such a situation, many miners are forced to sell cryptocurrency to cover costs, exerting pressure on the market.
• According to the calculations of the researchers Arcane Research, the latest generation ASIC Antminer S19 brings about $ 13,000 per produced BTC (at an electricity cost of $ 40 per MW ∙ h). Outdated Antminer S9 are already working at a loss.

• The cost of equipment per Tirash of mining power fell below $ 60, which corresponds to the marks of January 2021. At the same time, the current hashpraice is about two times lower than the marks of one and a half year ago. This indicates a low profitability of investment in ASIC Mainers.
• The difficulty of mining of the first cryptocurrency decreased by only 1% per month – to 29.57 tons. The indicator is approximately at the level preceding the May landwaters of the market.
• A relatively high complexity indicator against the background of price reduction exacerbates the position of miners. In such a situation, the yield of production is reduced and the costs are increased.

• In June, the total income of the Bitcoin Mainers decreased by 26%, amounting to $ 668 million. The indicator is accelerated since March.
• The total income of Ethereum Mainers decreased by 52%-a month of the air was obtained by $ 694 million. This is less than in January 2021 ($ 798 million).
• The above indicators are another argument in favor of the surrender of miners and the probable bottom of the market cycle.

• The average commission for Ethereum transaction decreased by 53.7% per month to $ 4.27, comparable to the values ​​of July 2021.
• In the second half of June, the average Bitcoin transaction commission did not rise above $ 2.
• The main reason for such low values ​​is the cooling of onchain-activity against the background of bear mood.

The volume of trading

• In June, the volume of trading on cryptocurrency exchanges updated at least from December 2020 at $ 672 billion.
• In the context of platforms, Binance ($ 398 billion) remains the constant leader. FTX was again ahead of Coinbase and OKX – $ 72 billion against $ 59 billion and $ 41 billion, respectively.

Futures and options

• In June, users showed considerable interest in derivatives based on bitcoin and Ethereum tools. The volume of futures trading was the highest in the second quarter ($ 1.32 trillion for bitcoin and $ 0.87 trillion for Ethereum).
• Open interest (total volume of open positions) decreased in a month from $ 16 billion to $ 10.4 billion, while daily liquidation on June 13 exceeded $ 1 billion.

• In June, the volume of blocked funds (TVLs) in smart contracts of decentralized applications decreased by 36%, to $ 74.72 billion. The reason is the crisis in the cryptocurrency market caused by macroeconomic factors, the problems of large industry players and the situation around the Steth.
• TVL of the permanent leader – Ethereum – fell to $ 42.83 billion ($ 71.98 billion in May). The indicator expressed in the ETH, on the contrary, grew by 11% – 40.27 million ETH against 37.74 million ETH at the end of May.
• Avalanche ecosystem reached third place in the volume of blocked funds. During the month, the liquidity influx in the applications on the basis of this network amounted to 111.32 million AVAX (+53% to May). This is partly due to the launch of a cross-bridge with bitcoin.

• In July, all the tokens of the Defi segment from the TOP-20 in capitalization were in the red zone. Such a dynamics has been observed for the third month in a row.
• The native token blockchain platform Defichain (-58%) showed the worst of all.
• The leaders of the fall were also AAVE and Curve tokens. Celsius and Three Arrows Capital, which were faced with liquidity crisis and had a negative impact on the entire market, actively interacted with these platforms.
• Among the projects on Ethereum, TVL leadership again passed to the MakerDao platform ($ 7.57 billion). In second place AAVE with $ 6.23 billion.

• In June, the dominance of the segment of decentralized exchanges in the total TVL sector Defi intensified. More than $ 24 billion was blocked in the smart contracts of these applications (31% versus 28% in May).
• In second place are landing services with an indicator of $ 15.41 billion, in the third-cross-bridges ($ 10.42 billion).
• According to the results of May, the total capitalization of the Bitcoins on the air fell to $ 5.89 – the reduction is almost half compared to the May figure ($ 10.15 billion).
• WBTC dominance index steadily lasts above 85%. According to the results of June, the capitalization of the asset amounted to $ 5.01 billion.

In June, the average daily number of transactions in all networks in question decreased compared to May. In Ethereum, the indicator fell by 8%, BNB Chain – by 18%, Polygon – by 4.5%, Avalanche (excluding traffic in subnets) – 53%.

DEX and L2

• In June, the volume of bidding on decentralized Ethereum-turrets reached $ 75 billion, which is lower than May, but above the values ​​from February to April.
• Curve for the second month in a row is the main bridge with synthetic assets in the Defi segment (Steth and WBTC). The protocol indicator for a month amounted to $ 15 billion.

• Despite the output of the Ethereum course, the volume of coins in the L2 solutions for the scale of the network again grew to a record 3.5 million ETH (at the moment 3.8 million ETH).
• The Arbitrum protocol announced the distribution of free NFT for participation in the educational event of Odyssey, designed to introduce users to the ecosystem. According to the results of the first week, the onchain activity turned out to be higher than the capabilities provided for by the network-at the moment of the commission on the L2 networks they took off higher than in the Ethereum blockchain. The developers postponed the event before the deployment of Nitro update, which will increase the scalability of Arbitrum.

Stebblecoins

• In June, the market capitalization of stablecoins decreased to $ 152 billion.
• While the vast majority of issuers, including Tether, reduced emission, Circle, on the contrary, increased the USDC proposal to 55 billion. The gap with USDT decreases – Tether has 67 billion coins in circulation.
• Within a month, attention in the segment was focused on the algorithmic USDD Stebblecoin from Tron. Despite the excessive support and active rebalance of assets, on June 20, Stablecoin collapsed to $ 0.81 (Huobi), while on other platforms only up to $ 0.91. By the end of the month, the binding of $ 1 was restored.

NFT and GameFi

• Stagnation in the NFT segment intensified. The volume of trading leading collections fell by more than 50%. The once popular areas of virtual land OtherDee of the metavselnaya Bored Yacht Club recorded a drop in volumes by 90%.
• In the context of blockchains, only Immutablex and Panini showed positive dynamics. Activity in the vast majority of leading blockchains fell by more than 50% compared to the last negative month.
• Once again the dynamics in the segment reflects the leading marketplace Opensea. The volume of bidding in the month was minimal in 2022 – a little less than $ 700 million.

The activity of large players

at an average price of about $ 20 817.
• As of 1.07.2022 Supplier of the analytical in holds on balance 129 698 BTC ($ 2.5 billion at the rate at the time of writing). At the same time, the basic cost of investment Microstrategy is $ 3.97 billion. Thus, the “paper” loss of the company is almost $ 1.5 billion.
• Against the background of the drawdown, the Salvador government acquired an additional 80 BTC for a total of $ 1.52 million.

• In June, Proshares launched the first in the United States reverse exchange bitcoin fund (Biti), which allows investors to open short positions on cryptocurrency.
• About a week in about a week, the volume of Biti assets surpassed ETF indicators from Valkyrie and Vaneck.
• Now Proshares controls the two largest bitcoin -etf in the United States. The largest fund of the company – Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) – with the volume of assets equivalent to 32,715 BTC.

• Open interest in bitcoin stores on the CME adjustable exchange in June grew by 25.7%.
• Hedge Funds and other large players of the Non-Commercial category are more actively building up, although they previously prevailed for short positions.

• The institutionals (Commercial) are significantly predominant in short positions on bitcoin fictions.
• On the tools based on Ethereum, the situation is approximately similar. However, we can note the rapid growth of shorts (+47%) through microCial futures in the complete absence of Longs.

Large venture rounds

$ 150 million

FalConx cryptocurrency platform oriented on institutions during the round of financing of the series D. The company was estimated at $ 8 billion.

$ 130 million

NFT Marketplace Magic Eden as part of the Investrand of Series B. The trading platform was estimated at $ 1.6 billion.

$ 113 million

Pantera Capital Indonesian Bitcoin-Birzha Bitcoin-Birzha and other investors.

$ 107 million

Cryptocastodian Prime Trust following the round of financing of the series B.

$ 100 million

SOLANA Ventures and Solana Foundation attracted to the investment fund in South Korean startups with emphasis on Defi, NFT and GameFi.

$ 66 million

SoftBank, GGV Capital and other investors.

Regulation

• The head of the Fed USA: We closely monitor what is happening in the cryptocurrency market.
• Gary Gensler: SEC USAwill regulate the cryptocurrency in conjunction with CFTC.

The events of the month

Ethereum developers transferred the Ropsten test network to the consensus algorithm Proof-OF-STAKE (POS). The update has become a general rehearsal before a complete transition to Ethereum 2.0.

Only the dust disappeared after the collapse of Terra, as in the spotlight of Celsius and the Head Fund Three Arrows Capital (3ac). Large players are close to bankruptcy, which can affect the entire cryptocurrency market. Pour oils into the fire and Alameda Research, which actively sells Steth token token.

How are Celsius, 3AC and Steth related? How their potential bankruptcy and the possible collapse of the “staying ether” will affect the market?

SOLANA introduced a set of SOLANA MOBILE STACK tools for mobile developers on SOLANA and Saga’s own smartphone based on Android. The device is designed to get around the restrictions introduced by Google and Apple, and open users unhindered access to Web3.

In June, cryptocurrency companies announced mass reduction of employees due to cryptosim. Among them is the American crypto -tank Coinbase, Crypto.Com, Blockfi, Bybit and many others. The exception was Binance, which declared intention to expand the staff.