Trader described the likely scenarios of the Bitcoin price movement

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A practicing trader and founder of the Crypto Shaman project Vadim Shovkun talks about the current situation on the market.

After the last review, Bitcoin descended under $ 18,000, but could not gain a foothold. Rethink the situation taking Книги о криптовалюте into account new factors.

S&P 500

Yesterday’s rebound is formed on a sufficiently strong pin bar. But there is still no volume. Updated the structure of LH&LL. Negativa adds the release data on consumer inflation – this suggests that the Fed will raise the base interest rate more than once and even more so will restrain the printing press.

According to statistics, most aggressive PIN bars are absorbed in the cost. Therefore, in the near future, a small wave of decrease is very likely. Under the election to the US Senate on November 8, the price may well get an increase (three to four subsequent weeks).

What will happen? Due to high inflation, the absence of volumes on s&P 500, when drainage of approximately current values, a deep decline is still expected.

Bitcoin on the daily timeframe clearly demonstrates the breakdown of the wedge. Statistically, wedges through flat rarely break through with a further strong movement. But in this case, a certain growth is likely at least due to its strong expectation by most market participants.

In favor of the medium-term update of the bottom, the analysis of cascades of liquidity shelves-technical levels for which stop-losses are gathering. The more they are and the closer they are to each other, the higher the likelihood that the entire range will be blocked.

The liquidity level of $ 18,100 is updated on futures (having formed a new one). The two previous ones were not touched. The main liquidity is still not collected.

A powerful PIN bar is formed on an eight-hour graphics (Hammer). Therefore, to expect soon the price in the field of $ 18,500 is very logical.

In the sidewall $ 18 400-20 400, lasting for almost two months, there were two bursts of an abnormally high volume. Both times attempted to reduce. Speaking of the terminology VSA/Price Action – there is no progress, as well as the result, the volume can be characterized as a stopping. Somewhere it should be implemented. Logical growth.

The analysis of the market for the market is still negative. High activity of the buyer is observed.

Opinions began to change very well. All the weeks when the sentiments were produced, the advantage was in favor of the fall (approximately 60/40). Now 50/50. After a wave of growth, there will already be a serious advantage in favor of levels above $ 25,000. For medium -term fall, this is excellent.

To what marks will be growth? Against the background of a large accumulated volume, it is quite logical to bring down the $ 22,850 mark, behind which quite a lot of liquidity has accumulated. A little higher is the POC of the last growth wave.

It must be understood that most market players exhausted in the current one and a half months of pushing by $ 17,600, in the region $ 23,000 will be as much as possible in motion higher. Polls will be with a huge advantage in favor of further growth by $ 25,000-30,000.

conclusions

The last wave of growth did not justify the renewal of minimums. This does not mean moving towards maximums. The failure is laid down, but not canceled. In a very short perspective, it is logical to wait for the absorption of the “hammer”. Then the growth is up to ~ $ 23,000, just under the election in the USA and positive in the stock market. Then a collapse with updating minimums.

In favor of updating minimums with consolidation, the technical tests of bitcoin and S are indicated&P 500.

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