September in numbers: Ethereum transition to Proof-OF-Stake and local minimum bitcoin

Public miners and the company’s cryptocurrency industry showed negative dynamics in September, since Bitcoin mainly moved in the sidewall. The community also began discussions that the next in line “problem companies” may become just the enterprises to extract digital assets.

According to Arcane Research, despite the successful 2021, many public miners reflected retained loss on the balance sheet. At the same time, the co -founder of Bitmain Jihan Wu, who is now headed by Bitdeer, announced plans to establish a fund for $ 250 million to help problem mining companies.

Macroeconomic background

• At a meeting on September 21, the Fed raised the key rate by 0.75%immediately, to 3-3.25%. Features of Federal Reserve suggest that by the end of the year it will reach 4.4%, and at the end of 2023 – 4.6% (3.4% and 3.8% were expected in June). At a press conference, Jerome Powell admitted that by the end of the year the parameter will be increased by 1-1.25%.
• The decisions made by the Fed’s made up the disappointment, since the markets had not yet managed to Мероприятия | Gagarin abandon the expectations of the end of the cycle increase in spring and summer 2023.
• Unlike the updated minimum of the US stock market, Bitcoin and Ethereum, restrained at the current levels, weakening the observed record correlation before the Fed.

• In Italy, the right -centric coalition of parties came to power, which is fraught with exacerbation of the relationship of Rome and Brussels, as well as the risks of a debt crisis. The signs of the latter were more manifested in the UK after the Minister of Finance of the Country of Quasi Kvarteng proposed a large -scale reduction in taxes in conditions of high inflation.
• Against the backdrop of destabilization of debt markets and the sharp devaluation of the British pound and the euro against the dollar, there was a sharp surge in digital assets for these fiat currencies.

Market moods, correlations and volatility

• In September, the “Index of Fear and Greviation” did not leave the zone of “extreme fear”. Compared to the previous month, the average indicator value has not changed (24.2 versus 23.2).
• Macroeconomic factors have influenced the mood of investors, including the Fed’s decision to increase the range of the key rate by 75 basic points at once, to 3-3.25%.

• The degree of correlation of bitcoin with the American stock market has practically not changed. The smoothed 90-day average indicator was 0.61 for index S&P 500 and 0.59 for Dow Jones (in August – 0.61 and 0.55, respectively).
• The statistical relationship of the first cryptocurrency with gold is strengthened for the third month to a row (0.27 versus 0.24 in August), but it remains weak enough to talk about the asset as a reserve.
• In September, the averaged value of the index of historical intraudic volatility of bitcoin (BVOL24H) amounted to 3%, which is higher than the indicator in August (2.6%).
• The maximum value of the indicator was 6.9% – the extremum came on September 21, when, against the background of increasing the key rate of the Fed digital gold, $ 19,000 dropped below the level of $ 19,000.

Onchain-data

• In September, the multiplier of Pewella (Puell Multiple) was periodically plunged and left the respirit zone. This behavior of metric indicates the absence of a clear signal about the completion of the bear phase of the market.
• MVRV Z-Score indicator remained mainly in the “Green Zone”. This indicates the preservation of pessimism in the market and at the same time for a potentially favorable period for purchasing cryptocurrencies for the long term.

• In September, the ASOPR onchain tool (7 m) never overcame the mark 1. This indicates the predominance of bear mood and the fact that most market participants fixes losses.
• Glassnode analysts noted the decrease to the historical minimum of the share of the Bitcoin-Government, concentrated in the hands of relatively active short-term investors. In their opinion, Hodler remain true to their strategies, refusing to get out of positions on any significant scale. Thus, with increasing demand against the background of a decreasing market supply of coins, there is a high probability of bitcoin price growth.

Ethereum

• From the beginning of September, Ethereum Balance of Centralized Exchange grew. This is also due to the announcement of the blockchain Pow-report and the intentions of sites like Binance and Bybit to support it.
• After the activation of The Merge, some users began to withdraw cryptocurrency from trading platforms – in the period from September 14 to 30, the latter’s balance sheets were reduced by 1,324,000 ETH.
• The share of ETH in smart contracts of Defi applications, on the contrary, fell in the first half of the month. However, the trend changed after the implementation of the update. The dynamics is also associated with the influx of funds for decentralized exchanges and landing protocols like AAVE.

• According to the results of September, the volume of Ethereum in Stayiking exceeded 14 million coins. During the month, the indicator increased by 5% – the largest increase since May 2022.
• The number of unique addresses entered in the Stayking 32 ETH or more reached 439 807. These wallets have the opportunity to confirm transactions and receive a reward in the cryptocurrency for their work.
• The number of Ethereum addresses with a balance of ≥ 32 ETH grew in the first half of the month, however, after the activation of The Merge, the dynamics changed.

Lightning Network

• According to the results of September, the capacity of the Lightning Network (LN) bitcoin network reached 4878 BTC – compared to August, the value increased by 5.7%. For comparison: in the previous month, the increase was 4.4%, in July – 10%.
• For the reporting period, the number of NODs LN has not changed much (17 449). The number of channels is reduced for the second month to the row – in September, the indicator was 85,431.

Mining, hashrate, commissions

• Against the background of mainly flammable movement, the price of the Heshreite Bitcoin (7 MA) per month increased by only 3.6%. The growth of the indicator should be expected with the active recovery of the market. So far, the situation indicates the uncertainty of miners in the medium and long-term prospects of the first cryptocurrency.
• The pessimism of market participants is probably associated with a decrease in the profitability of production and the disposal of the game relatively ineffective miners. The hashpraice indicator fell to the marks of July 2020, when digital gold traded below $ 10,000. This factor, along with irrational financial management and overly aggressive investments, caused the losses of many public companies.
• The situation is aggravated by the relatively high complexity of bitcoin extraction. Only recently, the indicator for the first time since July 2022 demonstrated negative dynamics, decreasing by 2.14% (up to 31.36 T).

• Foundry USA strengthened leadership among the largest bitcoin pools-its share in the total hash exceeded 25%. Antpool for a month also significantly increased market positions – from 15.4% to 17.8%. The F2Pool indicator for September increased from 15.1% to 16.3%, and Binance Pool – from 9.8% to 12.1%. The share of Poolin in total hashed fell from 10.2% to 5.3% – last month the company recognized liquidity problems, and after – presented a plan for the resumption of the withdrawal of funds.
• Against the background of stagnation, the price of bitcoin with a relatively high complexity of its extraction, the total income of miners decreased by 19%, amounting to $ 551 million.
• After Ethereum’s complete transition to Proof-Of-Stake, due to upgrade The Merge, miners left the second-capital network of cryptocurrency, their arrivals fell to 0. The annual yield of validators is ~ 4.8%.
• The hashrates of the main successors of the air were declining after The Merge. ETC indicator as of 01.ten.2022 is 147 Th/S, ETHW – 48 Th/S.

• The average commission for Ethereum transaction remained significantly higher than the same bitcoin indicator, although it decreased by 40% per month-to $ 1.97. The corresponding bitcoin indicator remained practically unchanged – at $ 1.
• Contrary to the misconceptions of some market participants, The Merge did not solve the scaling problem and did not reduce the commission, but completely transferred Ethereum to a new consensus algorithm and prepared the ground for future fundamental updates.

The volume of trading

• In September, the volume of bidding on leading cryptocurrency exchanges – $ 752 billion increased markedly. This is the best indicator over the past four months.
• The volume of trading of the segment leader – Binance – grew by 27% (from $ 426 billion in August to $ 541 billion in September).
• OKX again ahead of FTX – $ 58 billion against $ 52 billion. A similar dynamics is observed for the second month in a row. Coinbase has only $ 48 billion.

Futures and options

• Investors again showed considerable interest in derivatives on the basis of Ethereum in anticipation of The Merge, held on September 15. The volume of trade in futures exceeded $ 1 billion, only a little yielding to the last month.
• Options are still in less demand, but against the background of the volatility of the market, the indicator also grew.
• Open interest in bitcoin shops approached in September to 700,000 BTC-this is a historical maximum.

• In September, the volume of blocked funds (TVL) in smart contracts of decentralized applications increased by 1.2%to $ 86.63 billion. In August, other dynamics was observed – the indicator decreased by 8%.
• The permanent leader – Ethereum – accounts for more than 55% of the total TVL segment ($ 47.73 billion). The value expressed in cryptocurrency was 35.91 million ETH (33.96 million ETH – at the end of August).

• At the end of the month, most of the TOP-20 Defi-20 Defi-segment tokens were in the red zone in the red zone. The worst dynamics was shown by Balancer (Bal) and Defichain (DFI). The first fell into 31.25%, the second – by 25.92%.
• According to the results of September, the price of Compound (Comp) increased by almost 30%. The main driver is the launch of a landing service for institutional investors.
• Pancakeswap (Cake) quotes added almost 19%. On September 22, the community of a decentralized exchange approved a proposal involving the deployment of the Service smart contracts in a network that is different from the BNB Chain.
• Among the projects on Ethereum, TVL leaders hold the MakerDao platform ($ 7.68 billion). Curve Finance ($ 6.11 billion) was released in second place. Against the background of the activation of The Merge, an influx of funds in the smart contracts of the decentralized exchange was observed.

• Decentralized exchanges continue to dominate in the total TVL Defi sector – projects of this category account for more than 27% of the indicator or $ 24.04 billion.
• Landing services ($ 14.78 billion) are in second place, in the third-the cross-bridges ($ 10.86 billion).
• According to the results of August, the total capitalization of Bitcoins on the air decreased to $ 5.59 billion. WBTC dominance index remained unchanged – 84%.

• In September, the average daily number of transactions in all networks in question, except BNB Chain, decreased compared to the last month.
• The leader in the indicator of the Tron blockchain is the leader in the indicator-he holds this position since May 2022. On average, in August, the network processed about 5.2 million transactions per day. For comparison: in BNB Chain, the value was 3.2 million operations.

DEX and L2

• In September, the volume of bidding on decentralized Ethereum turbines fell by 20%-up to $ 44 billion.
• In the context of the protocols, the Uniswap is the unchanged leader with $ 30 billion (share in the segment ~ 70%). The best platforms included in the top 3-Dodo-secured the result and, by the end of the month, its indicator amounted to $ 3.5 billion.
• L2-solutions did not show any impressive dynamics. The total TVL in Ethereum has been on peak values ​​for several months in a row.

Stebblecoins

• The market capitalization of stabilcoins fell in September below $ 150 billion.
• Within a month, Binance increased the supply of Binance USD (BUSD) by almost $ 2 billion. Capitalization of stablecoin exceeded 21 billion.
• Circle led the USD Coin (USDC) in the amount of about $ 3.3 billion. The market rating of the USDT flagship remained unchanged.
• The capitalization of the algorithmic stabelcoin USDN from WAVES, which has not yet restored parity with the dollar, has decreased in September from ~ $ 700 million to $ 120 million.

NFT and GameFi

• A protracted recession is observed in the NFT segment. The volume of trading on the leading market for Opensea steadily falls from month to month and at the end of September reached $ 348 million, correlated in the summer of 2021.
• Trading volumes leading NFT collections decreased by tens of percent. The exception of Ethereum Name Service domains and a launched Immutable card game GODS Unchained.
• Blockchains activity was multidirectional. SOLANA and AVALANCHE improved the position in the segment. For several months, the proportion of non -replaced tokens sold on SOLANA increased from 7% to 24%, analysts Delphi Digital found out.

The activity of large players

• Microstrategy acquired from August 2 to September 19, 301 BTC. The average purchase price was $ 19,851 for 1 btc. At the time of writing in the company’s reserves, 130,000 BTC is stored worth more than $ 2.5 billion. This is 0.61% of the total emission of bitcoin.
• The indicator of the second largest bitcoin holder among public companies – Tesla – is 9720 BTC.
• The volume of digital gold in the HUT 8 mining Corp reserves increased from 7078 BTC to 7406 BTC.
• In general, public companies are in no hurry to sell digital gold against the backdrop of unconvincing dynamics of its price.

• Open interest (OI) for bitcoin textures on the CME adjustable exchange has not changed for a month, but the overall trend remains ascending.
• The number of Longs and shorts in the Non-Commercial categories (relatively large market participants) and nonreportable (small players) for almost a year remains at approximately the same level.
• The institutions (Commercial) still significantly predominate short positions over long.

• Against the background of an almost unchanging OI, the number of long positions of small players on microfites for bitcoin decreases.
• At the same time, the volume of short positions among the Commercial category is rapidly increasing. The indicator reached the mark of 10 165 (+85% per month).
• The growth of shorts among large market participants against the background of an almost unchanging OI indicates a gradual deterioration in market mood.

• Against the backdrop of moderate growth of open interest in Ethereumfects (+12.8% per month) on the CME ratio of Longs and shorts in the Non-Commercial and Nonreportable Players, approximately equal.
• On the other hand, the number of short positions in institutionalians (+600%) is growing confidently. It is also a sign of investors pessimism.
• According to Ethereum microfites, the situation is similar: the growth of the OI and the positions of institutionals against the background of almost unchanged indicators of Non-Commercial and Nonreportable.

Large venture rounds

€ 1 billion

Northzone venture company in the fund focused on investments in cryptocurrency and fintech startups.

$ 400 million

Two Sigma company specializing in investments in cryptocurrency and Defi companies through two of its funds.

$ 300 million

MYSTEN Labs founded by ex-employees of META. Funds will be directed to the creation of basic infrastructure and acceleration of the introduction of blockchain SUI.

$ 80 million

STRIKE payment application operator as part of the round of financing series B. The lid investor was the venture company Ten31.

$ 54 million

Standing at the same name NFT-collection of the DOODles startup during an investment of series A. The estimate amounted to $ 704 million.

$ 50 million

blockchain project with a focus on renewable energy sources Grngrid.

Regulation

The White House presented the concept of regulation of the crypto industry in USA. The head of the Fed said the absence of a decision to launch a digital dollar.

AT Great Britain proposed to simplify and accelerate the removal of cryptocurrencies. The government aims to turn London into cryptohab.